Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
